Check What Could Move the Won-Dollar Rate Amid a Strong Dollar and Volatile Oil

Where are the dollar and oil right now?

According to Newspim, the dollar index rose 0.37% to 102.58 in New York currency trading on the 12th, its highest level in about 18 months, since April 2025. Middle East tension grew as Yemen's Houthi rebels stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia and two oil tankers were hit, and money flowed into the dollar as a safe haven. The figures below are the values given in the articles as checked on 2026-10-13.

Oil prices differ a little by outlet and by timing. TopStarNews, citing The Wall Street Journal, reported pre-market Brent at $104.90 and WTI at $91.10 on the 12th.

What are the upside and downside factors for the won-dollar rate this week?

Stockplus Newsroom expected the won-dollar rate to trade in the 1,340 range this week. Factors that could push it up included Middle East unrest from the attack on a Saudi airport and the possibility of US military involvement, the strong dollar, and foreign selling of Korean stocks. Factors pressing down on the upper end were exporters' dollar-selling (negotiation) volumes and the current account surplus. The same article pointed to US CPI and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy signals as the material for gauging this week's direction.

For reference, the rate at 7:20 a.m. on the 13th was 1,335.80, lower than this forecast range. It keeps changing during the trading day, so check live quotes yourself.

Which dates should you check this week?

This table gathers the schedule reported by TopStarNews and Hankyung.com, in Korea time. The expectations are market forecasts, not confirmed figures.

TopStarNews and Newspim named the October 14 CPI and bank earnings as this week's key market factors. How to read the results is covered below, split by expert in the Fed outlook section.

How does the Fed rate outlook look now?

Newspim reported that the Fed raised its policy rate last month for the first time since 2023. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a hold this month is 78%, up from 51% a month ago. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said inflation pressure is spreading across the economy and the Fed should shift toward tightening relatively quickly.

On the other side, Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said raising rates ahead of an election would be highly unusual, so the actual bar for a hike is high. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger pointed to slowing US data, signs of easing inflation, and the fact that much of the expected Fed hike is already priced in, and he expected limited further upside for the dollar. The two views conflict, so do not settle on a direction from one side alone.

Why are the euro and France's public finances mentioned too?

The other side of the strong dollar is a weak euro. According to Newspim, the euro fell 0.4% against the dollar to $1.1156, close to a 17-month low, and had dropped for five straight weeks through last week. Concerns about French fiscal soundness ahead of the 2027 presidential election were cited as the backdrop. The gap between French and German 10-year bond yields was 140 basis points, and last week it came close to 160, the widest since 2012.

When you look at the won exchange rate, it helps to separate whether the dollar rose because of dollar strength itself or because other currencies weakened. These articles explain that both factors are at work.

What should you check first on the exchange rate?

First, check the US CPI result on the night of the 14th and Chair Warsh's remarks on the 15th. Then watch oil prices, which move with Middle East news. All figures in this article are from articles checked on 2026-10-13, and market prices keep changing. For the latest exchange rate and release figures, check official sources such as the Bank of Korea and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.